The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government

Data Alert 

June 7, 2012

For Immediate Release

Contacts:
Heather Trela (518) 443-5831
Lucy Dadayan (518) 443-5828

 

States Report Steady Growth in Tax Revenues in First Quarter   

 

By Lucy Dadayan  

Preliminary tax collection data for the January-March quarter of 2012 show further growth in overall state tax collections, as well as for income and sales tax revenues, for the ninth consecutive quarter. However, the growth in tax collections has been softening in the last three quarters. We will provide a full report on the January-March period after Census Bureau data for the quarter are available.

The Rockefeller Institute's compilation of preliminary data from 47 states shows collections from major tax sources increased by 4.1 percent in nominal terms in the first quarter of 2012 compared to the same quarter of 2011. Tax collections now have been rising for nine straight quarters, following the five quarters of declines that were brought on by the Great Recession.  

Among 47 early reporting states, 41 states reported gains while six states reported declines in overall tax revenue collections during the first quarter of 2012. Personal income taxes showed a growth of 3.2 percent, a considerable slowdown from the second and third quarters of 2011, when year-over-year growth was 17.1 and 10.3 percent respectively. Sales taxes reported relatively strong growth at 5.0 percent and corporate income taxes increased 2.2 in the first quarter of 2012 (see Table 1).

Table 2 shows state-by-state figures for the change in major tax revenues during the first quarter of 2012 compared to the same quarter a year earlier. North Dakota and Illinois reported the largest increases in overall tax collections, at 29.7 and 24.1 percent respectively. According to preliminary data, seven states reported double-digit growth in total tax collections, 11 states in personal income taxes and six states in sales tax revenues. Among the states reporting declines in overall tax collections, California reported the largest decline in terms of dollar value of $0.9 billion or 3.6 percent. Such decline is mostly attributable to expiration of temporary tax increases.

Overall, state tax revenues are showing improvement, though the pace of growth continues to slow from its peak in the second quarter of 2011.

Table 1: State Taxes Showed Continued Growth in the First Quarter of 2012

Percent Change in State Tax Collections vs. Same Quarter Year Ago

 

PIT

CIT

Sales

Total

2007 Q1

8.5

14.8

3.1

5.2

2007 Q2

9.2

1.7

3.5

5.5

2007 Q3

7.0

(4.3)

(0.7)

3.1

2007 Q4

3.8

(14.5)

4.0

3.6

2008 Q1

4.8

(1.4)

0.7

2.6

2008 Q2

8.1

(7.0)

1.0

5.4

2008 Q3

0.9

(13.2)

4.7

2.8

2008 Q4

(1.9)

(23.0)

(5.3)

(4.0)

2009 Q1

(19.4)

(20.2)

(8.4)

(12.2)

2009 Q2

(27.7)

3.0

(9.5)

(16.3)

2009 Q3

(11.5)

(21.3)

(10.1)

(11.0)

2009 Q4

(4.1)

0.7

(4.8)

(3.1)

2010 Q1

3.6

0.3

0.1

3.3

2010 Q2

1.3

(19.0)

5.7

1.9

2010 Q3

3.9

0.5

4.3

4.6

2010 Q4

10.2

18.1

4.9

6.9

2011 Q1

12.9

9.0

6.6

9.6

2011 Q2

17.1

19.1

5.3

11.1

2011 Q3

10.3

2.3

2.7

5.6

2011 Q4

4.2

(9.0)

2.4

3.6

2012 Q1 (preliminary)

3.2

2.2

5.0

4.1


Table 2: Percent Change in State Tax Revenue

Quarterly Tax Revenue by Major Tax
January-March 2011-2012, Percent change

 

PIT

CIT

Sales

Total

United States

3.2

2.2

5.0

4.1

New England

5.8

1.4

7.9

5.9

Connecticut

12.5

10.4

14.2

13.8

Maine

(5.1)

6.6

5.2

1.6

Massachusetts

2.4

(2.9)

4.7

2.0

New Hampshire

NA

14.3

NA

3.1

Rhode Island

8.7

(10.2)

4.7

3.1

Vermont

14.4

8.5

5.7

4.3

Mid-Atlantic

(0.2)

14.0

3.5

1.4

Delaware

33.5

(3.7)

NA

5.0

Maryland

13.6

34.1

13.1

11.3

New Jersey

1.5

38.6

2.2

4.3

New York

(2.8)

10.3

(0.3)

(1.8)

Pennsylvania

(2.1)

1.8

5.7

2.3

Great Lakes

14.6

4.1

5.3

9.3

Illinois

31.4

52.1

7.0

24.1

Indiana

3.1

(10.3)

4.4

3.0

Michigan

29.2

(17.8)

2.8

2.2

Ohio

0.5

(40.5)

7.5

5.9

Wisconsin

(3.2)

4.7

5.2

(0.4)

Plains

2.4

11.6

8.9

5.4

Iowa

(0.4)

62.8

3.6

3.9

Kansas

5.9

20.6

7.7

6.8

Minnesota

(0.3)

(2.9)

6.3

1.9

Missouri

4.3

(2.5)

8.4

5.4

Nebraska

10.4

31.9

9.9

10.9

North Dakota

5.2

45.6

44.3

29.7

South Dakota

NA

NA

ND

ND

Southeast

4.3

11.6

4.9

5.0

Alabama

2.5

62.9

6.9

4.4

Arkansas

(0.6)

12.7

4.9

4.9

Florida

NA

19.8

6.9

6.3

Georgia

7.0

(37.0)

5.3

4.0

Kentucky

0.6

29.1

7.2

7.4

Louisiana

(4.9)

(0.7)

3.7

0.5

Mississippi

14.6

16.3

5.9

7.6

North Carolina

2.7

36.7

(10.7)

0.0

South Carolina

5.3

(34.1)

6.7

4.3

Tennessee

NA

46.5

8.3

8.7

Virginia

7.7

27.1

7.8

8.4

West Virginia

6.9

(87.4)

8.8

(2.9)

Southwest

8.1

17.2

13.2

14.1

Arizona

3.3

33.3

4.4

4.9

New Mexico

ND

ND

ND

ND

Oklahoma

13.8

3.9

14.5

7.1

Texas

NA

NA

14.7

16.6

Rocky Mountain

7.8

(7.6)

4.9

4.5

Colorado

6.5

(13.6)

4.3

5.0

Idaho

(2.3)

(18.2)

9.2

0.4

Montana

15.2

(86.5)

NA

(4.2)

Utah

13.5

57.3

1.1

8.9

Wyoming

NA

NA

10.2

9.6

Far West

(0.7)

(19.1)

(1.4)

(1.8)

Alaska

ND

ND

ND

ND

California

(0.6)

(21.3)

(4.2)

(3.6)

Hawaii

(4.6)

NM

8.9

11.1

Nevada

NA

NA

7.1

5.2

Oregon

(1.6)

(12.0)

NA

(1.7)

Washington

NA

NA

5.0

7.4

Source: Individual state data, analysis by Rockefeller Institute.
Notes:   NA - not applicable; NM - not meaningful; ND - no data.

 

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About the Rockefeller Institute of Government

The Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government, at the University at Albany, is the public policy research arm of the State University of New York. The Institute conducts fiscal and programmatic research on American state and local governments. Visit our Web site at www.rockinst.org

 

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