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Recession, recovery, and state-local finances
In this presentation to the Forecasters Club of New York, Senior Fellow Donald J. Boyd examined the financial pressures faced by state and local governments as recession rolls into economic recovery. His talk included an analysis of the question, “Why won’t economic recovery feel like fiscal recovery?” His answer included the impact of federal stimulus funds, perception and policy choice.
Donald J. Boyd, January 28, 2010
Recession or No Recession, State Tax Revenues Remain Negative
State tax collections for the third quarter of 2009 showed a double-digit decline from the previous year — for the third consecutive quarter, according to this State Revenue Report. Negative revenue numbers remained widespread, with 48 states seeing total tax collections fall during the quarter on a year-over-year basis. The number of states reporting double-digit declines fell, however, from 36 states in the preceding quarter to 22 in the third quarter. Revenue fell most sharply in Western states, with Eastern states experiencing more moderate declines in collections.
Lucy Dadayan and Donald J. Boyd, January 2010
State Budgets, Health Care, and Health Care Reform
At a presentation to the National Academy of Public Administration, Senior Fellow Donald J. Boyd discussed the potential impact of health reform on state budgets. Noting that health care costs account for about one-third of states' budgets, Boyd discussed analyses that showed several health reform proposals would likely bring those costs down. But state and local governments remain concerned, he said, about a number of potential effects of reform.
Donald J. Boyd, November 19, 2009
Fiscal Sustainability Issues & Options (Discussant comments)
At the annual meeting of the National Tax Association, Senior Fellow Donald J. Boyd served as discussant for a session on fiscal sustainability for states. Boyd brought together the conclusions and lessons of panelists on this issue, and raised several questions about sustainability going forward.
Donald J. Boyd, November 14, 2009
State Budget Gaps: Consequences for Policy, Now and in the Future
Deputy Director Robert B. Ward gave this presentation at the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management Annual Research conference. He detailed the current troublesome status of state finances, considered how projections for revenue and spending would likely impact budget gaps in the future, and highlighted some approaches states might consider to address future gaps.
Robert B. Ward, November 5, 2009
Old News Is Bad News: Third Quarter Brings More Decline in Tax Revenues
States suffered from falling tax revenues again in the third quarter, compared to the previous year, according to preliminary data in this report. Tax collections fell 10.7 percent overall. It was the fourth consecutive drop for two major revenue sources — personal income and sales tax. Further declines are also expected in the fourth quarter.
Lucy Dadayan and Donald J. Boyd, November 23, 2009
State Revenue Report #77: State Tax Revenues Show Record Drop,
For Second Consecutive Quarter
State tax collections for the second quarter of 2009 dropped 16.6 percent, marking the second consecutive quarter for record-breaking declines, according to this Institute report. All but one state (Vermont) saw total revenue fall. Thirty-six states reported double-digit decreases. And, according to early signs, more troubling news is likely for the third quarter.
Lucy Dadayan and Donald J. Boyd, October 2009
State Budget and Finance: Trends and Challenges
Senior Fellow Donald J. Boyd spoke to the Pew Center on the States about fiscal trends and challenges for states. The current fiscal crisis is likely to extend into future years, Boyd said. That's in part because, due to both policy and politics, states rarely cut spending as sharply as revenue falls. State officials and government monitors need to plan for lean years ahead, he said.
Donald J. Boyd, September 25, 2009
For the First Time, a Smaller Jackpot: Trends in State Revenues
from Gambling
State and local gambling revenues dropped 2.8 percent in 2009, according to preliminary data in this report. The drop is the first in at least three decades. In the past year, at least 25 states have considered expanding gambling operations.
Lucy Dadayan and Robert B. Ward, September 21, 2009
Presentation to the New Hampshire Gaming Study Commission, Robert B. Ward, October 6, 2009
Presentation to Stop Predatory Gambling, Lucy Dadayan, November 9, 2009
State/Local Employment Up Slightly
Since Start of Recession, But Cuts
Are Now Underway
While the private sector has lost nearly 7 million jobs since the recession began, state and local governments have added jobs, this report shows. Over the past year, total state- and local-government employment rose in 30 states and dropped in 16. Many public employers have cut jobs in recent months, however, and further cuts are expected.
Donald J. Boyd, August 20, 2009
Infrastructure, Federal Stimulus, and State-Local Finances
State and local governments are crucial to the nation's infrastructure, paying for more than 70 percent and managing more than 90 percent of public infrastructure spending, Institute Senior Fellow Don Boyd told a panel of the American Bar Association at the group's annual meeting. The federal stimulus package will help stave off cuts in this spending, but at $10 billion-$12 billion annually, it is only about 5 percent of what states and localities spend on infrastructure capital in a typical year, and is much less than the stimulus aid available for general budget relief. The temporary nature of the stimulus package means that states and localities will continue to struggle with infrastructure financing in the years ahead.
Donald J. Boyd, August 1, 2009
Coping with Effects of Recession in the States
States are responding to historic drops in revenue by enacting the largest tax increases in decades, and growing budget gaps will likely lead to further tax increases and spending reductions, Rockefeller Institute Senior Fellow Donald J. Boyd told a meeting of the Governmental Research Association in Washington, D.C. Early evidence suggests states are cutting assistance to local governments, and some are reducing public payrolls. While state tax revenue historically recovers quickly after a recession, such recovery will likely not emerge until some time after the federal stimulus assistance expires in 2012, Boyd said. He warned of “a new round of very difficult revenue and spending decisions in January-June of 2010.”
Donald J. Boyd, July 2009
State Revenue Report #76: State Tax Decline In Early 2009
Was The Sharpest on Record
State tax collections during the first quarter of 2009 showed the sharpest decline on record, according to a new Rockefeller Institute report. Early figures for the second quarter reveal continued, broad worsening of fiscal conditions for states. Local tax revenue, meanwhile, remains relatively steady.
Donald J. Boyd and Lucy Dadayan, July 2009
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State and Local Finance: Increasing Focus on Fiscal Sustainability
This article builds on previous research and analysis of fiscal sustainability for state and local governments. First, it reviews recent history of states’ expenditures and revenues, as background for the emerging concern over sustainability. The article describes evolving themes in analyses of state/local fiscal pressures over the last three decades, discusses varying definitions of fiscal sustainability that have been offered in previous literature, and argues for greater precision in such definitions. Finally, the article examines potential action by the Governmental Accounting Standards Board in this area, and discusses how developments in the economy, and potential action at the federal level, may influence state and local budgets in years to come.
Robert B. Ward and Lucy Dadayan, Publius: The Journal of Federalism, June 2009
What Will Happen to State Budgets When the Money Runs Out?
[PDF]What will happen to state budgets when the new financial assistance included in the federal stimulus legislation expires? Senior Fellow Donald J. Boyd examines that question in a new Rockefeller Institute report. His conclusion: Budget gaps in fiscal 2012 are likely to rival those facing states before adoption of the stimulus package.
Donald J. Boyd, February 2009
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